| 03/01/2013
Just received our tax refund. Lots of free cash available at the moment, with no major expenses to cover. What to do... The market is nearing it's all time high, and bonds are a lost cause. Will probably just sit on the money until we see a pullback in the market.
03/05/2013
Reached a new record high for the Dow. All assets minus the house bumped over the $500k mark for the first time today as well. Getting nervous about the run we've had. No sign of a bubble, but I think we've gotten a little ahead of where we should be.
Looking at Bob Brinker's areas of focus in his timing model - I think things still look favorable.
- Economic cycle - Positive
- Monetary policy - Positive
- Valuation - Neutral
- Sentiment - Bulls / Bulls + Bears - Not sure where this stands, but likely a Negative signal after this rally (over 70%)
03/14/2013
Up 10 days in a row, and now just 2 points away from taking out the all time high in the S&P. Somethings gotta give...
Our net worth is up another $10k since the start on the month.
I've been emailing my bro daily about the situation. The term irrational exuberance keeps coming to mind.
Our current asset allocation:
Cash 4%
Bonds 26%
Stocks 69%
My bro and I are both leaning more and more towards moving to cash to varying degrees. I am considering pulling our stock allocation back towards 60%. My bro is talking about going completely to cash.
Moving to cash, and trying to time things is a fools game. But in these situation emotion plays a role, and one often thinks they have some angle on the market which will give them an edge. Foolish!!! Yet we're both still talking about making a move, and I would guess we'll both do something soon.
Back when the market hit 10k, I moved $75k to short term bonds in my 401k. That $75k is now $76k. If I left it in, it would be $105k. Do I want to take the risk of missing out if the run continues? Ugh - it's just one big mind game.
03/18/2013
Got the word today that my company plans to wind down operations in one of our hardware teams. I watched our company acquire this team back in 2006. Almost everyone I work with scratched their heads about this purchase. And now, after seven years we've killed them...
This is the second time I've seen this happen, and it really annoys me. This company would still be alive today if some clueless exec hadn't made the bonehead decision to purchase a business that had nothing to do with us. What's really sad is that the person who made this happen will never suffer the consequences. I watched people leave their families, and move from the West Coast to our building in New England to keep their job. And now... the reason they moved here is gone.
Most of our revenue comes from software and services, which is what I do, so in theory I'm safe. But I can't help but shake my head about the state of the business and it's long term direction. Revenues for my product, which is the money maker for the company dropped 10% in 2012.
For the first time in my 15 years with the company I am having serious doubts about the business and my future there. My co-worker and I have been joking openly about how happy we'd be to be let go. Not a great sign...
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